Confidence interval estimation tasks and the economics of overconfidence
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Overconfidence in interval estimates.
Judges were asked to make numerical estimates (e.g., "In what year was the first flight of a hot air balloon?"). Judges provided high and low estimates such that they were X% sure that the correct answer lay between them. They exhibited substantial overconfidence: The correct answer fell inside their intervals much less than X% of the time. This contrasts with choices between 2 possible answers...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
سال: 2006
ISSN: 0167-2681
DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2004.10.010